ど素人が不動産投資の勉強を始めてみた

アパートやらマンションやら不動産投資の話にはまっています。

リスクがあることは重々承知なのですが、何かやはり新しい世界に踏み込んでみたいという思いが最近強いです。いくつかの本を読むと、共通点があったり、間逆のポイントがあったり不動産投資の多様性を感じます。目的は同じ(金を稼ぐ)、なのですが、アプローチは年収や長期戦略によって大きく変わるということなのだと理解しました。

いくつかポイントをまとめてみました。

地方の物件を探すべし

やはり、首都圏の物件は裕福層の投資対象になっているため相場か高く、利回りが低いことが多い。でも、人気がある分値段が下がらないから資産性としては良いと思うのですがそれだけではキャッシュが回らない。利回りを考えると地方の中核都市がおすすめになるようです。物件の値段の落ち幅と比べて賃貸物件の相場はそれほど都心と差が無いということなのですね。一口に地方とはいっても、人口減などを踏まえた将来性だったり、選ぶポイントは多岐に渡るようです。

ワンルームをたくさん買ってリスク分散すべし VS 一棟をまるごと買うべし。

これは上の二冊で間逆のことが書かれています。ワンルームを買うことのメリットは、共通の部分の管理の手間が省ける、おかしな入居者を引いてもリスク分散できる、少額から始められるので始めやすい、買い足しやすいなどのメリットあり。

一方で、ワンルームオーナーには銀行は投資してくれないという情報も。銀行も事業ですからワンルームの値段とかだとローン組むような対応はしてくれないのでしょうね。また、ワンルームは銀行の資産評価上、土地が含まれないから信用毀損により評価が落ちるそうです。なので、現金で買う必要が出てくる。(ローン組んだとしても信頼が落ちる。)

でも、現実的にはワンルームからの投資というのは簡単だし、そこから始めていくというのが自然なのか。ただし中古の場合は数年回した後に購入してもらえるかというとかなり厳しいのでしょうね。

木造一棟買いがおすすめというのは、事業としては分かりやすいですね。中古の木造を安価で買って、直して、空室率を下げる。不動産をあくまでキャッシュを得るためと考えて改修にはお金をかけても構造にはお金をかけない。最終的に売れないとしても賃貸の実績さえ上がれば事業は回りますからね。

結局は当たり前のことですが、物件を安く仕入れて、たくさんお客さんをつければ利益が出るわけですからね。いろいろと難しく書く本がありますがこの本質を忘れてはいけないなと思いました。

新築の物件は利回りが低いので難しい。

不動産セミナーでは新築の個別マンションや一棟アパートなどがんがんお勧めしてますよね。上記の本では両方ともお勧めしていませんが果たしてその通りなのでしょうか。だとしたらなぜ世の中の大家は新築するのでしょうね。新築しないと借り手がつかないからでは?中古のアパートの苦労はこの辺の裏返しから来るのでしょうか。資産価値として考えたときに都心部であれば価値がそうそう下がらないし、多少利回りがマイナスになったとしても、ローンの支払いを家賃で出来ると考えれば最終的に売却益で設けることが出来るでしょう。

それを踏まえた上でも、利回りで考えると地方の中古のアパートを買うべきだという見方が多いということなのでしょうか。地方でかつ中古となるとやはり売るにはそれなりの苦労を伴いそうですが、そもそも売却は二の次で、とにかくキャッシュフローをまわすという考え方なのでしょうね。

こちらの本にもありましたが、総利益とキャッシュフローどちらが大事かといったらやはりキャッシュフローを重視すべきだと。都心や新築物件は確かに資産としては残るので税金対策にはなりますが、日々のキャッシュが残らないと事業にならないですからね。ちなみに本書では6章以降でキャッシュフローのシミュレーション方法や銀行の評価方法などが書かれておりとても分かりやすく参考になりました。


まとめるとこんな感じでしょうか。

一棟買い

  • 利益が大きい分、リスクも大きい。
  • 簡単な分、リスクも大きい。
  • 共同部分も含めて見る必要がある。
区分買い

  • ローンを組む時注意する必要あり。
  • 利益が小さい分、リスクも小さい。
  • 共同部分の手間がかからない。
新築都心
  • 資産性高、購入費用高、家賃収入高
  • 安定している分リスクが少ない。
  • 人気があるので客付けが楽。
  • 利回り赤字でもキャピタルゲインが得られる可能性がある。
新築田舎
  • 資産性中、購入費用中、家賃収入中
  • 人気が無いエリアだと家賃収入だけでなく、売却のリスクがある。
中古都心
  • 資産性中、購入費用中、家賃収入中
  • 指値で購入できるため、費用を抑えられる可能性がある。
  • 将来的な資産価値にリスクがある。
中古田舎
  • 資産性低、購入費用低、家賃収入低
  • 利益率の高い物件を回せばキャッシュフローが有利。
  • 将来的な資産がほとんど残らない可能性がある。
  • 空室率改善に向けた相応の努力が必要となる。

金融機関の評価のことを考えるなら、なぜ土地つき一戸建てのビジネスが流行らないのでしょうね。道理はマンションでもアパートでも戸建てでも変わらない気がしますが。直感的にマンション、アパートの方が儲かりそうというのはもちろん分かります。

でも、差別化によって財を成すという観点(それを事業と呼ぶのなら)から考えると、例えば古民家再生のような戸建て賃貸があっても面白いのかなと思いました。もちろんCFが回らなければただの妄想ですが。もっと勉強が必要ですね。

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